Hiroshi Hamasaki, Senior Research Fellow
The Paris Agreement, an international framework for global warming countermeasures, has come into force, and the need for measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is increasing. The Paris Agreement aims to bring the global temperature increase to 2°C or lower compared to pre-Industrial Revolution levels. In Japan as well, the "Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures” Cabinet Decision of May 13, 2016, "sets a long-term goal to pursue 80% reduction by FY2050". In order to achieve the mitigation target of 80% by 2050, renewable energy such as wind and solar power will be key, and storage to stabilize the power grid allowing for the dissemination of such variable renewable energy, storage measures such as hydrogen production by electrolysis, and system maintenance to disseminate renewable energy, will be necessary. In 2050, the energy system will become more complex than we can imagine, making it difficult to examine the energy system as it should be.
This research develops an energy technology model, focusing on renewable energy, grid electricity storage, and so on, and aims for a quantitative evaluation of an energy system to achieve 80% mitigation by 2050. For expanding the grid, construction of large-scale wind power generation in Hokkaido, Tohoku and Kagoshima can be expected. Electric power generated in Hokkaido will be supplied to the Kanto region, in addition to electricity generated in Tohoku. Grid storage will also play a vital role against the destabilization of the energy system as a result of the dissemination of variable renewable energy, and in 2050, capacity of 11.8GW in Hokkaido, 6.0GW in Kyushu and 5.0GW in Tohoku can be expected. Without grid expansion, the extensive existing wind power generation in Hokkaido will only be used to meet demand in Hokkaido, and supply to other areas will be limited. A major mitigation in greenhouse gas emissions, such as the 80% proposed, without grid expansion, will cause differences to arise in the marginal cost of regional energy production.
The full version of this report is available in PDF format below. This report is only available in Japanese.
Role of Renewable Energy and Grid Storage in Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 80%: Analysis Based on an Energy Technology Model Considering the Grid (1.51 MB )
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